Canada’s oil sands industry is showing measurable environmental progress, according to a new S&P Global analysis that reveals Canadian oil sands emissions intensity has fallen for the 13th consecutive year. The latest report shows that oil sands GHG intensity dropped to 59 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel (kgCO2e/bbl) in 2025, marking a nearly one-third reduction since 2009.
While headlines often focus on oil sands emissions, the latest findings demonstrate why understanding the difference between emissions intensity and absolute emissions is critical. The report shows that although total greenhouse gas emissions increased modestly alongside record production, the carbon emitted for every barrel of oil produced continues to decline significantly.
For Canada’s energy sector, the numbers reinforce a broader trend: Canadian oil sands are producing more oil while generating proportionally less carbon, making the industry more efficient than it was nearly two decades ago.
S&P Global Report Shows Canadian Oil Sands GHG Intensity Continues to Decline
According to S&P Global Energy’s latest annual benchmark analysis, the average oil sands GHG intensity fell by another 2% in 2025.
The benchmark now stands at:
- 59 kgCO2e per barrel in 2025
- 31% lower than 2009 levels
- 13 consecutive years of declining emissions intensity
- Nearly 27 kilograms less CO2 emitted per barrel compared with 2009 production
The continued decline highlights years of operational improvements across Canada’s oil sands industry.
While global energy demand remains strong, the report suggests that Canadian producers are supplying those barrels with a significantly lower carbon footprint than in previous years.
Understanding the Difference Between Emissions Intensity and Absolute Emissions
One of the biggest misconceptions surrounding Canadian oil sands emissions is the confusion between emissions intensity and absolute emissions.
Although both measure greenhouse gas emissions, they answer two very different questions.
What is emissions intensity?
Emissions intensity measures how much greenhouse gas is produced for every barrel of oil.
In 2025, the industry average reached 59 kgCO2e per barrel.
Lower intensity means producers are becoming more efficient by reducing the amount of carbon required to extract and produce each barrel of oil.
What are absolute emissions?
Absolute emissions represent the industry’s total greenhouse gas output.
According to S&P Global, total oil sands emissions reached approximately 89 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025, representing a modest 2% increase from 2024.
This does not necessarily mean production became less efficient.
Instead, it reflects that more barrels of oil were produced overall.
The two measurements can move in different directions.
A sector can increase production, resulting in slightly higher total emissions, while simultaneously reducing emissions generated for every individual barrel.
That is precisely what occurred in Canada’s oil sands during 2025.
Canadian Oil Sands Production Grew Faster Than Emissions
The report highlights an important trend that often gets overlooked.
Between 2024 and 2025:
- Canadian oil sands production increased from approximately 3.35 million barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day
- Production grew roughly 4.5%
- Total emissions increased only 2%
This means production expanded at more than double the rate of emissions growth.
Rather than indicating worsening environmental performance, the numbers demonstrate increasing operational efficiency.
According to S&P Global, the newest production added during 2025 carried an emissions intensity of only 33 kgCO2e per barrel.
That figure is just over half the industry’s current fleet-wide average of 59 kgCO2e.
In other words, the newest barrels entering production are among the cleanest ever produced in Canada’s oil sands.
Why Lower Oil Sands GHG Intensity Matters
Lower oil sands GHG intensity has important implications for both Canada’s economy and global energy markets.
Worldwide oil demand continues to exceed 100 million barrels per day, and most long-term forecasts suggest oil will remain a significant part of the global energy mix for years to come.
If global demand continues regardless of the producer, many analysts argue that lower-emission barrels should play a larger role in meeting that demand.
The S&P Global analysis supports that argument by showing Canadian producers continue reducing emissions per barrel through technological improvements rather than simply reducing production.
This concept has increasingly become part of discussions surrounding responsible energy development.
Rather than focusing solely on how much oil is produced, attention is shifting toward how efficiently and responsibly each barrel is produced.
Operational Improvements Continue Driving Lower Emissions
The steady decline in Canadian oil sands emissions intensity did not happen because of one breakthrough technology.
Instead, years of incremental improvements have steadily reduced emissions.
Some of the major contributors include:
Better mining fleet optimization
Mining equipment now operates more efficiently through improved logistics, reducing fuel consumption across large extraction sites.
Waste heat recovery
Facilities increasingly capture and reuse waste heat that would otherwise be lost during production.
This reduces the need for additional fuel consumption.
Predictive maintenance
Advanced monitoring systems help identify equipment issues before failures occur.
Keeping equipment operating efficiently lowers energy consumption while reducing downtime.
Faster maintenance turnaround
Reducing maintenance shutdown periods allows facilities to maintain higher operational efficiency throughout the year.
Carbon capture investments
Large-scale projects have also contributed to emissions reductions.
Among the most significant examples cited by S&P Global is the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage project, which began operating in 2015 and captures significant volumes of carbon dioxide before they enter the atmosphere.
The report also references Suncor’s coke boiler replacement project completed in 2024, another major investment that improved emissions performance.
What Does 59 Kilograms of CO2 Actually Mean?
Greenhouse gas figures can be difficult to visualize.
To make the number easier to understand, 59 kilograms of CO2 equivalent, the current average emissions intensity for one barrel of Canadian oil sands production, is approximately equal to:
- Driving an average gasoline-powered passenger vehicle for about 240 kilometres (150 miles)
- Burning roughly 25 litres of gasoline
- Approximately four and a half days of electricity use for an average North American household
- Around 4,750 smartphone charges
Back in 2009, producing that same barrel generated approximately 86 kilograms of CO2 equivalent.
Today’s production therefore represents a substantial reduction in emissions associated with each barrel.
Canada’s Oil Sands Continue Balancing Growth and Emissions Reduction
The latest S&P Global findings suggest that Canada’s oil sands industry is increasingly demonstrating that production growth and emissions improvements can occur simultaneously.
Record production levels have not prevented continued reductions in emissions intensity.
Instead, producers have managed to increase output while steadily lowering the carbon footprint attached to each barrel.
The report also indicates that future emissions reductions are likely to come from continued technology adoption, operational optimization, electrification, carbon capture, and ongoing efficiency improvements throughout the sector.
What the Latest S&P Global Analysis Means for Canada’s Energy Future
The newest S&P Global oil sands report presents a more detailed picture of Canada’s energy industry than headline emissions figures alone.
While absolute oil sands emissions increased modestly as production reached record highs, Canadian oil sands GHG intensity continued its long-term downward trend for the 13th straight year.
The nearly 31% reduction in oil sands emissions intensity since 2009 reflects years of investment in cleaner production methods, operational efficiency, and emissions-reduction technologies.
As global energy demand continues, Canada’s oil sands sector is positioning itself around producing increasingly lower-carbon barrels. The latest figures show that every new barrel entering production is significantly cleaner than the industry average, reinforcing the long-term trend toward improved environmental performance while maintaining Canada’s role as one of the world’s leading energy producers.
